Period table of bloggers

Hat tip to Ritholtz for this. Via The Reformed Broker. This looks awesome… and dorky.

Source: Big Picture

Roubini knows how to parteh

It felt strange seeing Roubini partying with the chicks and with a wide grin on his face but well, it happened:

With a hot, Gwyneth-Paltrow-look-alike chick

Now isn't that smile precious... and rare

 

Another chick... who looks drunk

And another... oh wait, this isn't a chick.

Photos courtesy of Gawker. ht to Clusterstock.

 

 

The effects of World Cup: Before, during, and after

FT Alphaville has this interesting post citing a study by BofA/ML on the effects of World Cup in retail sales, consumption, tourism, and industrial production.  As expected, the first three go up during the month when the WC is being held while going back to pretty much where they were prior to the WC.  That’s when visitors leave and significantly slow down on their purchases and/or consumption.  Meanwhile, as the effect of World Cup mania spread all throughout, people become less productive as they begin to work less and talk more about what happened during the previous night’s match.

Here are the charts:

The post closes by saying this:

The analysts also argued that the World Cup “remains one of the under-researched topics in South African macro”. We agree — so please do let us know if you see any interesting research on the topic in the run-up to and aftermath of the tournament.

I second the motion.

Source: FT Alphaville

Per capita government borrowing

With the huge amount of borrowing governments have done, it is always better to be able to put into perspective just how much borrowing there has been.  Here’s one from the FT, calculating the per capita of government borrowing:

Ireland has the biggest from among the countries while the US has the second biggest, followed closely by the UK. Notice that while Japan has debt about 170% of its GDP, it is still much smaller on a per capita basis than the US, whose debt level isn’t even 100% of its GDP.

Source: FT

When it ticks up 35, it may be a time to buy

From Vix and More:

Over the course of the 20 year history of the VIX, the volatility index has posted close-to-close four day gains of 35% on 42 occasions. If you strip out the consecutive instances of +35% days, this leaves 27 instances in which the VIX crossed above +35% in four days. I have reproduced the full table of these 27 instances below for several reasons. First, the key takeaway is that from a timing perspective, a long SPX position entered after a 35% spike will generally perform best over the course of a five day time horizon. In the graphic below, the 27 instances average a five day gain of 1.99% vs. a typical five day SPX return of 0.14%, for a 1.85% net differential. While the net differential peaks at five days, it is apparent in just one day and persists for at least fifty trading days.

There are two things worth noting with the current VIX. One is that it has spiked so much within a few days, 35% as the post said in a matter of 4 days.  And two, that the rise may be seen as a contrarian bullish mean reversion buying opportunity.

The corresponding chart mentioned above is here:

If you bought when it strike 35% higher, you probably did good. Then, it is for the short-term.

Source: Vix and More

Thinking MBA?

Economist is out with its list of top MBA programs in the world and the rankings are quite different from the ones I usually see in the other lists, say the one compiled by the FT, BusinessWeek or US News & World Report. I guess it’s the number one school that got me; I’m just used to seeing either UPenn or the other Ivy Leagues on top.  Here’s Economist’s top 30:

The magazine also has some sort of an accompanying article to it, which can serve as a guide to choosing which MBA program to go for.  The best part of it, for me, reads:

These differences reflect different methodologies. The Economist’s rankings rely heavily on students’ own assessment of their time at business school in general, and of whether their earning power rose and their “networks” expanded in particular. One reason why IESE did so well is that 98% of graduates found jobs within three months of graduation with an average basic salary of $125,000—a remarkable feat in the current economic climate. The FT’s list emphasises academic research as well as salaries. But the clash of rankings also has a bright side: it underlines the fact that there are different ways in which business schools can excel.

The people behind the ranking themselves admit the divergence between what they came up with and what the other publications have. Wharton, which is #1 on the Financial Times list is “only” #9 here while Spain’s IESE takes the top spot.  Also the second is not Harvard BS, nor LBS or any other US institution.  Rather the place goes to Swiss university International Institute for Management Development.

Another observation: Oxford’s Said Business School lands at the #47 spot, lower than Henley Business School (which I honestly have never heard of), Ashridge (also unheard of), and Warwick Business School.

To see The Economist’s entire list of 100, with 10 others unranked including the Philippines’ Asian Institute of Management, click here. To read the article, also from the Economist, click here.

A billion people hungry

Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day tackles one very important issue: world hunger.  Failure to add to the developmental aid, while the wealthy continue to amass wealth, is taking the number of people who suffer from hunger and undernourishment to as much as a billion. That’s almost the whole India suffering from hunger.

When you hear/see something like this, it’s frustrating because not much is being done and it’s depressing because it is happening.

Source: Bloomberg

$140bn in bank compensation: Ain’t too shabby

WSJ puts up a table on compensation for some of the biggest banks, hedge funds, asset managers, and stock and commodities exchanges.  The number: a record $140bn.  Yes, that’s higher than the $130bn that was paid when the market was at its peak back in 2007 and before everything came tumbling down.

Here’s the table:

Some things to note: Look at Blackstone’s compensation as a % of its projected revenue. Even the absolute number.  Wowzers.  And among the investment banks, it isn’t surprising that Goldman has the biggest in an absolute basis. Meanwhile Morgan Stanley also will be paying more than Citi and BofA would to its employees.

Then again, that’s just WSJ’s prediction.  Although higher or lower than that, I suppose it wouldn’t be so wrong for me to declare, let the compensation bashing begin.

Source: WSJ

Zimbabwe out, Venezuela in

Business Insider presents this chart on Venezuela’s inflation.  According to IMF, the South American country would have the highest inflation rate by next year.  Yes, someone has finally kicked Zimbabwe out of the top spot.  Mind you, Venezuela doesn’t have the thousand percent level of inflation.

With inflation already a reboust 27.3% in September, the country looks well on its way to meeting these expectations.

The country is expected to have 28% inflation this year followed by 32% next year. Even in 2014, current trends point to 33.8% inflation.

Zimbabwe’s inflation will stand at 8.7% by 2010.

Source: BusinessInsider

Human Development Index

From the Economist:

That Mozambique and Rwanda have staged strong improvements from the previous year is great, but that both are ranked 172 and 167 respectively (out of 182) in the Human Development Index ranking is not highly encouraging.

Source: Economist or the UNDP

Retail: 2003 to present

Another chart from NYT on the change in retail sales from 2003 to present.  For the last 6 years or so, stores for grocery, clothing, building and materials, and furniture all posted a decline. So did auto dealers and department stores.  But restaurants, bars, liquor stores, computer stores, and warehouse stores tell a different story.

Courtesy of the NYT

That building materials stores, furniture and home stores, and auto dealers plunged shouldn’t come as a surprise.  However, it’s interesting to note that grocery stores have been on the losing streak since 2003. That is, if the year may be taken as a valid base year/starting point to measure changes in the retail landscape.

Source: NYT (ht to Ritholtz)

The not so good unemployment. Still.

Here’s another chart, which isn’t so encouraging.  Unemployment rate Friday gave us a grim picture of the unemployment situation in the US, the actual number being much worse than what was expected by economists.  Here’s how the recent unemployment compares to the past years, from a post by PragCap aptly called ‘Not Your Average Recession’:

There are predictions (including mine) that Q3 would show a positive growth but it’s hard to feel it when unemployment continues to rise.  That only translates to further defaults and flat consumer spending. Oh well.

Source: PragCap/CalculatedRisk